The awards have been flying around furiously, and even though the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is probably the least reputable group of all the critics who actually bestow honors upon the worlds of film and television, for some reason (read: a really large budget that allows for a really glitzy show), their Golden Globe Awards are the most publically influential honor a film (and to a lesser extent, a TV series) can win, second to the Oscars.
And so here we are, with the Golden Globes happening tonight, sneaking up on everybody who still isn’t really used to them being in mid-January rather than the good ol’ days when they were about three weeks later because … well so was Oscar. I’ve been furiously (myself) trying to catch-up on all the movies that came out in 2006 that had so far eluded me. There are still a few more I hope to see before officially releasing my own Top 10 list (which I really, truly anticipate to arrive by this Friday), but I can’t help myself from doing a relatively brief and somewhat quick prognostication for tonight’s event.
The Globes are always slightly more unpredictable than the Oscars. They’re known for nominations that make no sense and the occasional winner that is even less logical. This year’s nominations are no exception, and I’m sure there are several HFPA members still enjoying whatever expensive swag received by The Weinstein Company since there is no other possible explanation for a that Bobby Best Picture nomination, especially when you further consider that while Emilio Estevez was (justly) shut-out of the director category, Clint Eastwood managed to score 40% of the nominations for two films that between them could only score one “Foreign-Language Film” nod. For my money (as I will also discuss in a further post), the three front-runners for the Out of Focus Lensy™ for “Most Overrated Film” of 2006) all received Best Picture nods — Little Children and Babel for Drama and Little Miss Sunshine for Musical or Comedy. (Sorry, kids, but as much as I enjoyed Little Miss Sunshine, the praise it has received for being a great movie is a bit much. I think it’s a much better film than Thank You For Smoking, for examplel; it’s just not as good as some are making it out to be.)
The Globes could actually go any which number of ways tonight, so unless I think there’s a shoo-in, I’m actually not going to predict. Work has been getting so all-consuming that I don’t know that I have the brain power right now (as I sit in my office on this national holiday) to accurately predict. After the jump is a combination of who might win, who will win, who should win … blah blah blah. In doing this, it just reminded me … Oscar is more fun.
Best Picture – Drama
We’ll start big and go small. With this selection of choices, it will be a flat-out crime of The Departed does not take home the little statue. The only other contender that would leave me without at least one bald patch is The Queen. I fear that the envelope will open with babbling Babel on the inside, but it should be (and probably will be) The Departed.
Best Picture – Musical or Comedy
This too is no contest for me, but will the HFPA actually give the award to Borat? Probably not. The other four are all enjoyable movies with huge flaws; the prize will most likely go to either Little Miss Sunshine or Dreamgirls, and I don’t actually have a preference between the two.
Best Director
They love Marty and have actually given him the prize before. This year, he actually absolutely deserves it for the movie nominated as well, and I think Scorsese will take it home, hopefully in a prelude to an eventual deserved Oscar night win. With that said, if Eastwood doesn’t split his own vote, I hope he gets it for the powerful and far more interesting Letters From Iwo Jima.
Best Screenplay
This category is actually difficult because I’d be happy with any of three of the nominees, but if I was giving my own vote, I’d probably say Peter Morgan for The Queen over William Monahan’s The Departed or Patrick Marber’s Notes on a Scandal. Little Children appearing in this category more than any other is simply an example of critics drinking the Kool Aid. The biggest problem with Little Children (as I discussed in October) is its heavily flawed script.
Best Animated Film
I haven’t seen Monster House, but one has to figure this race is between Happy Feet and Cars. If the former wins, that would be quite a coup, toppling Pixar from its throne, and after just seeing Happy Feet this weekend, I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see such an upset happen. The reason is simple: Happy Feet is a lot more fun (until the overtly anvil-dropping message third act) than most expected, and Cars, while still very good, was not up to what most of us now consider Pixar standards, at least in terms of story. Personally, I’d probably still give it to Cars because Happy Feet really does kind of self-destruct, but I expect that the voting was probably close.
Best Foreign-Language Film
The difference between the Academy Awards and the Golden Globes “foreign film” categories is perfectly exemplified by this year’s Globes nominees which include two American produced films. Because the Globes only restriction on nominees is that they be primarily in a non-English language (as opposed to being from another country from which only one film can be selected and submitted), their category is often very strong, and this year, it’s probably the strongest and most competitive category for the entire show. If I didn’t consider Pan’s Labyrinth the absolute best film of the year, I’d be perfectly content seeing the surprisingly fantastic Apocalypto (yeah, yeah, Mel Gibson … bleh) or the moving and insightful Letters From Iwo Jima win. I am a huge fan of Almodovar, but on the heels of three straight masterpieces, I just didn’t think Volver was that strong, although it’s still better than 60 % of the Best Picture-Drama category. I haven’t seen The Lives of Others, but regardless, I will be quite disappointed if Pan’s Labyrinth doesn’t take the prize.
Best Actress-Drama
I take that back: this is the most competitive and strongest category in the show. For all my Volver misgivings, Penelope Cruz gave the performance of her career and proved herself an actress of much greater depth than she had seemed. Maggie Gyllenhaal also gave a career-defining performance in Sherrybaby, and Kate Winslet was the best thing about Little Children. Judi Dench is always superb, and yet, in Notes of a Scandal she still manages to surpass her usual excellence. But anybody who has seen The Queen had to walk out of that film wanting to hand an Oscar, let alone a Golden Globe, to Helen Mirren right away, and I’m no exception.
Best Actress-Comedy
I still haven’t seen Miss Potter but I did just finally watch The Devil Wears Prada this past weekend, and as much as it surprises me to say so, I was shocked at being blown away by Meryl Streep. That, of course, should never happen, but her creation of Miranda Priestly in this otherwise fun but certainly not extraordinary movie is what every actor should aspire to. She takes a showy character and instills her with a remarkable amount of subtlety, primarily with the smallest glance or body movement, and almost never with dialogue. It should be (and most likely will be) Meryl’s night … again.
Best Actor-Drama
Here’s the category where I am most at a loss: the only film of the four I’ve seen is The Departed. From everything I’ve heard, Forest Whitaker deserves this prize, but the HFPA seems to love Leo this year, just like they love comedian types doing drama (hello Will Smith). So I can’t predict, nor can I select. Ho hum.
Best Actor-Comedy
On the other hand, the only film I missed in this category is Kinky Boots, and if Chiwetel Ejiofor beats Johnny Depp, Will Ferrell and Aaron Eckhart, I’d be quite shocked. Of course, nobody should be taking this award away frmo Sacha Baron Cohen, and I hope the HFPA voted for him just to see how he would approach the podium. My guess is as Borat … or maybe Ali G … just chances are, not as Cohen. Let’s hope we get to find out.
Best Supporting Actress
This one’s going to Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls because everyone loves this kind of story. I hope to get around to a Dreamgirls review, but come on people: her singing was magnificent; her performance of the songs is right up there too; but her acting isn’t exactly relevatory. She’s not bad by any means, but people are being blown away by her performance of the song(s), which is actually quite different from acting. I’d have to give it to Cate Blanchett who is wonderful in Notes on a Scandal. If, somehow, one of the Babel girls gets it, I hope it’s Rinko Kikuchi. At least her character was kind of interesting.
Best Supporting Actor
I’m missing Ben Affleck and Hollywood land, but I would be really happy to see either of two winners here: the role played by Mark Wahlberg in The Departed — as small as it was — seemed to have been written for him the day he was born. He managed to steal every scene without upstaging anyone in any of them. He was brilliant, whether it was acting or simple memory of cops from his Boston youth. The only reason I don’t hand him my own personal version of the Globe is because in one scene in Dreamgirls, without saying a word, Eddie Murphy gave the single best acting performance of his career.
Music
None of these inspire me, but you have to know that “Listen” from Dreamgirls is going to win Original Song, even though the song — the only one added specifically for the movie solely so it could win awards — is absolutely inappropriate in every way to the storyline and situation. But whatever. As for Score … eh … give it to Clint Mansell for The Fountain or Gustavo Santaolalla for Babel and then wake me up.
AND NOW, in a very quick rundown for TV:
Best Television Drama
Meh … I have problems with all of these nominations. I’d give it to Heroes actually, but it’s still too new, so for now, it should be Lost. It probably will be Grey’s Anatomy because the Globes are stupid. (And yes, I know almost everyone except me loves the show.)
Best Television Comedy
A much stronger category, I’m actually not sure why they didn’t continue to include Arrested Development in here since their eligibility is by calendar year, not television season. But without it, the clear winner has to be The Office, at least for my money.
Best Television Actor-Drama
I really want to see Dexter, but I haven’t. I suppose Michael C. Hall could win, but chances are it will be Kiefer or Hugh Laurie. My bet is 24 will give it to Kiefer. My hope (and my vote) would go to Laurie for House.
Best Television Actress-Drama
I look over these names and ultimately … I don’t care. that’s horrible to say, but it’s true. I suppose I’d throw it to Edie Falco for her continued excellence as Carmella Soprano. I’m in lust with Evangeline Lilly and I love Lost, but come on — best actress? I can see them giving it to Kyra Sedgwick too for The Closer, but ultimately, I kind of don’t care.
Best Television Actor-Comedy
This one is really hard as two names leap out ahead of the pack for me. Steve Carell is simply brilliant on The Office, but 30 Rock — even though it has significantly improved — would be almost painful to watch without Alec Baldwin, who is pure comedic genius as much (if not more so) due to his approach and presentation of his character as the writing. As much as I love Carell, I think Alec should win.
Best Television Actress-Comedy
Mary-Louise Parker for Weeds. ‘Nuff said.
Best Television Supporting Actor
I hate how they throw all the series and miniseries/TV movie nominees together, especially since I rarely see a lot of the miniseries/TV movies (which is why I’m skipping those categories). I did see Elizabeth I, though, and I’m still going to say … how could anyone other than Jeremy Piven win for Entourage.
Best Television Supporting Actress
This is a toss-up for me between Elizabeth Perkins (Weeds) and Sarah Paulson (Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip). Paulson is the one character on that show who, as irrational as it often seems, sometimes manages to overcome Sorkin’s voice to give the character its own. But damn, that show bugs me (even as I continue to watch it). I’ll give it to Perkins.
Those are my thoroughly disorganized and hastily put together thoughts. Gee … I can’t wait to revisit them after tonight. Although more importantly, I can’t wait to see how they stack-up to next weeks Oscar nominations when the real fun will begin!
Out of Focus 